U.S. truck transportation employment moved above year-ago levels in September for the first time in several years, signaling a modest improvement in the trucking labor market. At the same time, a new carrier survey suggests that many fleets remain more concerned about finding and keeping qualified drivers than about broader economic conditions.

Together, the data paints a more complex picture than a simple “capacity is loose” or “driver shortage is back” narrative. Trucking employment has improved, but carriers are still competing for experienced drivers, adjusting pay strategies, and looking for better ways to identify retention risks before drivers resign.

Employment recovery remains gradual

Truck transportation employment reached 1.473 million jobs in September, up 2,600 positions from August and 800 jobs above the prior-year level. The year-over-year gain is significant because it ended a long stretch in which trucking employment remained below prior-year figures.

Truck transportation employment reached 1.473 million jobs in September, up 2,600 positions from August and 800 jobs above the prior-year level. The year-over-year gain is significant because it ended a long stretch in which trucking employment remained below prior-year figures. Truckload driver employment also increased during August, rising to 503,200 jobs from 501,400 in July. However, truckload employment was still slightly below the prior year and remained substantially below its 2022 high. This suggests the sector is stabilizing rather than rapidly expanding.

LTL employment rose as well, reaching 248,900 jobs in August. The segment added 1,200 jobs month over month and stood roughly 2,900 jobs above the end of 2025. For shippers with regional, industrial, or multi-stop freight, that trend may indicate somewhat stronger operating conditions within portions of the LTL market.

Carriers prioritize drivers over economic concerns

While employment data points to measured improvement, the 2026 Carrier Survey from Conversion Interactive Agency and People.Data.Analytics found that driver-related issues were carriers’ leading concern.

• 71% of respondents identified the driver shortage as a top concern
• 68% identified driver turnover as a top concern
• 42% cited driver compensation as a top concern
• Driver-related concerns ranked ahead of inflation, freight-market conditions, fuel prices, and regulatory issues

The results do not necessarily mean that every market or carrier is experiencing a severe driver shortage today. Rather, they indicate that fleet leaders are planning for a more competitive market for qualified, experienced drivers as freight demand and capacity conditions evolve.

Notably, 95% of surveyed carriers reported actively recruiting experienced company drivers. The survey identified a shrinking pool of qualified drivers and increased competition for experienced personnel as the principal recruiting challenges.

Pay and retention may affect capacity

Carrier compensation actions are another important part of the capacity picture. More than half of survey respondents had increased driver pay in the previous six months, including 46% that had done so within the previous 90 days. Overall, 83% had either recently increased pay, planned to do so, or were considering a pay adjustment.

For shippers, this matters because higher driver compensation can eventually influence carrier operating costs and rate expectations, particularly in lanes or equipment categories with limited qualified-driver availability. The effect may not appear evenly across the market, but it can be more pronounced for specialized freight, time-sensitive shipments, difficult delivery locations, or lanes with persistent turnover.

The survey also identified a major retention-management gap. Although 71% of carriers said they were somewhat or extremely confident they understood why drivers leave, 86% said they usually identify a driver as being at risk of departure fewer than 30 days before the driver leaves or only after resignation. No respondents said they typically identified turnover risk more than 60 days in advance.

That timing gap matters operationally. If a carrier cannot anticipate departures, it has less time to recruit, train, and seat replacement drivers. Sudden turnover can create localized capacity constraints, increase service variability, and put additional strain on dispatch and customer-service teams.

AI adoption is increasing, but oversight trails

The survey also found broad interest in artificial intelligence across trucking operations. Only 9% of respondents said they were not using AI in any capacity; the remaining 91% were researching, testing, or actively using it.

Driver recruiting was the leading application, cited by 61% of respondents, followed by marketing and advertising at 41%. Carriers may use AI to improve candidate communication, screen applicants, prioritize recruiting activity, analyze retention indicators, and support marketing outreach.

However, governance has not kept pace with adoption. The survey found that 58% of carriers lacked an AI committee or similar oversight group. As carriers use AI more extensively in recruiting, workforce management, pricing, customer communication, and planning, shippers should expect questions around data quality, decision accountability, and appropriate human review to become increasingly important.

Warehouse employment remains softer

The warehouse labor market continues to move in a different direction from trucking employment. Warehouse employment fell by 4,100 jobs between August and September, reaching 1.832 million jobs. That was 21,600 jobs below the prior year and more than 107,000 below the March 2022 peak.

For importers, exporters, and manufacturers, weaker warehouse employment can have practical implications even when linehaul capacity is available. A shortage of labor at the facility level can affect appointment availability, unloading and loading times, cross-docking, transloading, palletizing, and storage throughput.

What shippers should watch

The latest labor indicators point to a transportation market in transition. Broad freight demand, carrier financial health, driver availability, and warehouse labor conditions are not moving in the same direction.

Businesses should focus on the operational factors most likely to affect their specific freight rather than relying only on national market averages:

• Monitor recurring lanes for signs of tighter driver availability, service inconsistency, or rising tender rejections
• Review whether specialty equipment, driver-assist requirements, jobsite deliveries, or difficult appointments create additional carrier risk
• Build forecast visibility with core carriers and logistics providers before seasonal volume spikes or project launches
• Confirm warehouse and transloading capacity early when freight requires storage, repalletizing, crating, or cross-docking
• Maintain backup provider options for high-value, time-sensitive, oversized, or project cargo shipments
• Discuss how key providers are managing driver retention, compensation changes, and workforce planning

The immediate market signal is not a nationwide capacity emergency. It is a reminder that labor conditions can tighten first in specific freight segments, regions, and service models. Companies that plan by lane, cargo type, and facility requirement will be better positioned than those that rely solely on broad trucking-market assumptions.